Chapter 10 of 11 · What Exists
WHAT'S ACTUALLY BUILT
You can drive to the Central Valley today and see the concrete. Pillars rising from farmland between Madera and Bakersfield. Eight years of construction, $13.8 billion spent, and what exists is 80 miles of guideway structure — with no track on it. No trains have been ordered. The segment under construction connects Merced and Bakersfield, two cities that together represent less than 1% of California's economic output and were not mentioned in Prop 1A's description of the project.
80 mi
Guideway Structure
Concrete pylons · no track installed yet
16%
Of Phase 1 Done
After $13.8B · remaining 84% needs ~$72B more
0
Trainsets Ordered
Procurement missed Dec 2024 deadline · restarted
Phase 1 Route — Completion by Segment (%)
Construction Structures Complete
Construction Progress — By Segment
16%
of Phase 1 Guideway Complete After $13.8B Spent
The project's own 2026 Business Plan acknowledges it does not have sufficient committed funding to complete Phase 1. At this rate, the remaining 84% would cost approximately $72B more — assuming no further increases.
Chapter 11 — The Final Word →
THE VERDICT
Japan built its bullet train for $14M per mile — on time, in 1964. China: $40M per mile. California: $250M per mile. The global comparison is the final word.